Bitcoin price prediction

On April 15th I made a bitcoin price prediction for 2014. It included a chart indicating the range of expected bitcoin prices marked with a pale orange color. 40 days later we have enough data to check how well the prediction held up so far.

I marked the new historical data with green. As expected bitcoin seems to have broken the down trend and started going up. You can see that the price stayed well within the range and currently it is almost right in the middle of the expected range. On May 25th, 2014 BTC trades at around $580.

The underlying assumptions in the last 40 days haven't changed. Blockchain.info and Coinbase are both adding more than 100.000 new users per month. Coinbase is adding students aggressively by offering instant $10 credit on signup. Circle promises to make Bitcoin easier, targets new non-technical users and started sending invitations. Several conferences educate and connect thousands of interested business people about Bitcoin all around the World. Plenty of good news around Bitcoin nowadays.

As I wrote in mid April, if the prediction chart holds up, by June 2014 we will see BTC to crawl back to the $600-700 range (we're only $20 away from this prediction to be correct) and we will see a price rally around July with the price going up all the way to over $2, 500 by August or September. I think the price will not go beyond $3, 000 at any point this year.

So is this a good time to buy? A good time to buy was last October, but the next best time to buy is now. Even if on the short term we see corrections because of some unexpected bad news, on the long term Bitcoin is still looking like a great investment.

If you're new to Bitcoin do invest some to learn about crypto currencies and to secure some coins in case Bitcoin does makes it big in a few years. But, remember that Bitcoin is an experiment at this stage. Only invest as much as you can afford to lose.